Robert Mugabe
Robert
Mugabe's exit as the President of Zimbabwe has been described by
analysts as an incident that could set off a chain of similar events in
Africa, Gbenro Adeoye writes on the matter.
The letter by President Robert Mugabe stating his intention to
resign as the President of Zimbabwe with immediate effect was not just a
letter; it was one that set off a ripple of excitement through the
streets of Harare, the country’s capital city, and beyond. It also
promises changes beyond the borders of Zimbabwe.
Media reports of how Zimbabweans flooded the streets in wild
jubilation have pervaded the airwaves following the exit of the
93-year-old leader from office on Tuesday. They told of how horns hooted
and cheers of joy filled the air as Zimbabweans celebrated into the
night on the streets of Harare. Such jubilations even extended to the
streets of Johannesburg, South Africa, which has a large population of
Zimbabweans.
In their euphoria, some Zimbabweans have declared November 21,
2017, the day Mugabe resigned, their Independence Day, even though the
country’s independence falls on April 18.
But the logic behind such a declaration can be deduced – Mugabe is
the only leader Zimbabwe has known since its independence from Britain
in 1980 and a blot of allegations of election rigging, repression of
dissent and causing the country’s economic collapse on his 37-year
reign, made his people welcome his resignation with relief.
However, there are signs that Mugabe’s exit from power will have a
ripple effect on other countries, particularly in Africa. Zimbabweans
have already begun calling on fellow citizens abroad to return home,
particularly those who had fled to South Africa.
But beyond issues related to migration and economy, political
analysts are of the opinion that the development in Zimbabwe could have
far-reaching effects on Africa, particularly in countries with
‘sit-tight’ leaders, even though, Mugabe’s exit did not arise from an
uprising or a revolution by the people.
Rather Mugabe’s exit was as a result of an internal crisis in
government and the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic
Front following a feud between the President’s wife, Grace, and his vice
president, Emmerson Mnangagwa.
The feud led to the sacking of Mnangagwa by Mugabe, paving the way
for Grace to succeed the aged leader instead of his vice president, who
had been touted as his likely successor. The military later moved in and
put Mugabe under house arrest and his eventual resignation soon
followed.
However, political analysts have described the incident in Zimbabwe
as one that could trigger revolution movements in Africa that will be
similar to the Arab Spring. Arab Spring is often used to describe a
series of anti-government protests, uprisings and armed rebellions that
broke out and spread across the Middle East in 2011.
For example, a former Nigeria’s Ambassador to Greece, Prof. Olu
Agbi, said Mugabe’s exit would have sent a message to other African
countries with ‘sit-tight’ leaders.
“How could Mugabe just feel that he would dismiss his vice
president and allow his wife to take over as if it is bedroom democracy?
“So the other countries where we have leaders who have been in
power for so long, a message has been sent to them, their people and
their defence forces. It shouldn’t be a coup where people get killed,
but it can be a situation where you tell such leaders that they have
done so much and should leave,” he said.
Africa is home to a number of ‘sit-tight’ leaders, many of whom use
open rigging and constitutional change to continue to remain in office.
For instance, President Paul Biya of Cameroon assumed office on
November 6, 1982, following the resignation of President Ahmadou Ahidjo.
The country’s parliament in 2008 passed a controversial amendment to
the constitution that enabled Biya, 84, to run for a third term and in
October 2011, he won another election to remain in power. The election
was largely described by observers as marred by irregularities. Only
Biya and Ahidjo have served as Presidents of Cameroon since the country
got independence from France in 1960.
Uganda’s President, Yoweri Museveni, 73, got into office in 1986.
In 2005, the country’s constitution was amended to allow Museveni extend
his time in office.
The country’s last presidential election in 2016, which was won by
Museveni, was overshadowed by allegations of rigging and arrest of
opposition politicians and activists. In 2016, Museveni appointed the
first lady as the Minister of Education and Sports.
Similarly, Teodoro Obiang Mbasogo, 75, has been the President of
oil-rich Equatorial Guinea, amid allegations of corruption and rigging,
for about four decades.
His son, Teodorin, who was named his father’s vice-president in
2016, has been enmeshed in allegations of corruption and money
laundering. He has had over $70m worth of his assets seized by the US,
including a Malibu mansion, a Gulfstream jet, a Ferrari said to worth
more than $500,000.
Idriss Deby, 65, has been the President of Chad since 1990 following a coup d’état.
In 2016, Deby won an election to remain in office for a fifth term.
Seventy-three-year-old Omar al-Bashir of Sudan has been in power
since his 1989 coup that ousted the democratically elected government of
Prime Minister Sadiq al-Mahdi.
Subsequently, in 1993, al-Bashir unilaterally increased his powers
when he appointed himself President of the country and disbanded the
governing body of Sudan, Revolutionary Command Council for National
Salvation, and all other rival political parties. He, therefore, assumed
the executive and legislative powers of the council.
Faure Gnassingbe became the President of Togo in 2005 after the
death of his father, Gnassingbé Eyadema, who had been the leader for 38
years.
In September, thousands of people marched through the streets of
Lomé, Togo’s capital, protesting against Gnassingbé’s continued stay in
power.
The protests were organised by a coalition of opposition parties and civil society organisations.
Amnesty International estimated that 100,000 people marched in
Lome, with many of them wearing the red, orange and pink colours of the
opposition parties as they chanted “Free Togo” and asked Gnassingbe to
step down.
A professor of Political Science at the University of Nigeria,
Nsukka, who described the development in Zimbabwe as good, also
described it as a “lesson to African leaders.”
He said, “It will let African leaders who want to stay in
office perpetually know that if they don’t leave, that is what will
happen. They may be thrown out. Nobody would have believed that Mugabe
would be thrown out. Leaders should leave when it is right so that there
will be room for others to compete.
“They should learn not to stay in office beyond when it’s
necessary. What will happen in Africa now is what happened in the Middle
East. We can have an African Spring whereby people will move to the
streets to force out their leaders.
“It happened in the North African countries, where leaders were
forced to leave and elections were organised, so it is a good
development. So there is going to be an African Spring that will force
African ‘sit-tight’ leaders out, not by military coup but through mass
mobilisation.”
Onuoha noted that “leaders want to die in government because they are intoxicated by political power.”
“Once you have political power, you are a god and everybody
bows to you; not because they like you, but because they have to do so.
And once you allow that to get into your head, you are finished. So
leaders want to remain in power because they get used to being
worshipped and so on.
“Most leaders find it difficult to leave office and that is why
they wait till they get thrown out. Look at Nigeria’s former President
Olusegun Obasanjo, he allegedly plotted to stay for another term. If it
were possible for them to stay for so long, they would,” he said.
Also identifying the reasons why some leaders find it difficult to
leave office, Agbi said, “It is because of the horrible things they do
in government. When they are in government, they expose themselves to
the kind of opulence they cannot get elsewhere.
“The late Obafemi Awolowo (a former Premier of the defunct
Western Region) said that a life you cannot live outside government,
don’t live it in government. But a lot of our leaders have exposed
themselves to lifestyles they cannot live outside government and they
don’t want anyone to know what they have done, so they like to die in
that office.
“And when someone dies in Africa, we say we should not speak
ill of the dead and so, we forget about his atrocities. Gabon is an
oil-rich country but its money was in its late President, Omar Bongo’s
pockets. He had wives all over the world. How could a leader maintain
such a lifestyle if he does not continue to stay in office?”
Agbi, therefore, expressed hope that with more population of youths
who being politically-inclined, there would be positive changes in
Africa’s political system.
But Onuoha noted that it was only by building strong institutions
that Africa could deal with the problem of leaders wanting to remain in
office at all costs.
He said, “Strong institutions can be built through good
governance. There was a time when people had no hope in the Independent
National Electoral Commission but with the recent governorship election
in Anambra State, it made people believe that their votes counted. That
is how to build strong institutions, by not interfering in the affairs
of institutions. In the case of Zimbabwe, the institutions were weak,
but with the military, Mugabe was forced to leave.”
However, a professor of Politics and International Relations and a
former Ambassador to Belgium, Alaba Ogunsanwo, described the recent
development in Zimbabwe as “unique”, saying it would be wrong to assume
that what happened in Zimbabwe would happen elsewhere.
He said, “What happened in Zimbabwe had nothing to do with the
people. The military that initiated it was part of the ZANU-PF. It was a
revolution and the armed forces were part of the group that struggled
for it. There is no doubt that the country’s military sees itself as a
wing of the ZANU-PF.
“And when they saw things were going wrong in the party that
might lead to destruction, they moved in. That was why the sacked vice
president said that even while he was in exile in South Africa, he was
in touch with the military chief.
“So they knew what they wanted to do and when the military told
the people that they could go out and demonstrate if they wanted Mugabe
out, they did so. Initially, the people were not sure if they would be
shot at by the police but with the assurance by the military, they went
out and demonstrated.
“And ZANU-PF also told the people that they could join the
demonstration. We cannot see it as an example of something that others
will want to copy. It was well-managed because the military understood
the environment in the Southern African region, which does not tolerate
coups.
“And subsequently, the army was saying that it was not a coup
and that was why Mugabe was allowed to go out and still do some of the
things he wanted to do. So it is a unique situation and we don’t have to
generalise and assume that it will happen in other parts of Africa.”
Ogunsanwo noted that citizens of the countries with ‘sit-tight’ leaders deserve their leaders, saying: “There
are situations where people feel what is going on is bad but they will
not want to change it because it gives them the opportunity to put the
corrupt people in power. Do you think people care about corruption in
Nigeria? They don’t. It is a joke. If you are rich, people will vote for
you; it is straightforward.”
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Culled from Saturday Punch
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