US
President Donald Trump brands himself as a dealmaker but arguably, the
most significant American deal struck in the past 40 years since Camp
David, was the Iran Nuclear Agreement by former President Barack Obama.
Achieving with a sweep of the pen what years of “debilitating” sanctions
never accomplished, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, JCPOA,
stilled Iran’s uranium enrichment programme and reduced its nuclear
stockpile.
Yet Trump has called it the “worst deal
ever negotiated” and vowed to “tear it up”. Trump’s electoral bluster
against the Iran deal could be diffused by workaday reality. He remains
positive toward Moscow – and President Vladimir Putin’s most significant
ally in the Syrian war theatre is Iran. What is more, Iran is actively
fighting the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), which Trump
really hates.
Significantly, the hardest-nosed,
anti-deal hawks – including Newt Gingrich and Rudy Giuliani – failed to
secure seats in Trump’s cabinet. Instead, newly appointed Defense
Secretary General James Mattis has stated that to scupper it would sully
Washington’s trustworthy image, and isolate the US, as allies in the
European Union and United Nations would be unlikely to follow suit.
Yet, Trump may still see compelling
reasons to rip it up. First, he, like Hillary Clinton, is much more
favourable towards Israel than Obama was, and Israel is starkly
anti-Iran and hates the JCPOA.
Second, the prospects for US business in
Iran remain slim, while opportunities with Saudi Arabia and other
conservative Arab regimes are vibrant. As Riyadh is embroiled in its own
soft war with Iran, while anxious to maintain cosy relations with
Washington, encouraging Trump to rip up the deal is a Kingdom goal.
Third, the deal’s future is vulnerable
not only in Washington but also in Iran, where hardliners never strongly
supported it, and where a political standoff between reformers and
hawks is taking shape in the run-up to the presidential elections of
April 2017. This uncertainty has been exacerbated by the death of
pragmatist reformer Hashemi Rafsanjani, which has left President Hassan
Rouhani fighting for his future, and the deal.
The consequences of scrapping the JCPOA
would be dire – Iran’s nuclear re-activation, a possible regional
nuclear race and an escalation of conflict in the neighbourhood.
Ali Akbar Salehi, the head of Iran’s
Atomic Energy Organization, has hinted that Iran could regain most of
its enrichment capability within a year and a half.
Tehran, however, would have to decide
whether it, too, would rip up the deal and lose its economic windfall.
If Iran’s hardliners prevail and it backs out of the JCPOA, business
deals with the EU would abruptly be cut off. The oil and gas industries –
the biggest beneficiaries of post-sanctions investment – would shrink,
plunging Iran into a new recession, dashing the hopes of its vast youth
population, prompting possible domestic unrest and likely clampdowns.
With the prospect of closer US-Iran
relations no longer containing Saudi ire against Iran, the chances of
growing conflict between these two Gulf powers could be expected to
rise, an unprecedented situation in modern regional history, as until
now, they have never allowed their simmering mistrust and Sunni-Shia
competition to boil over into outright war.
Finally, a cancelled deal would mean no
more inspections of Iran’s nuclear programme. This combined with an
Iranian missile programme that is expanding rapidly, makes a toxic
combination, one that could attract an Israeli “corrective” attack with
Trump support, immediately broadening the turmoil in the Syria-Iraq
theatre into a wider and highly militarised regional war.
The JCPOA is a compromise that has
worked. Getting more guarantees for the US would mean forcing Iran to
accept more concessions, which its hardliners won’t do. Though Trump may
be a great deal maker, Obama’s Iran deal is about as good as it gets.
Roxane Farmanfarmaian is an
affiliated lecturer in international relations of the Middle East and
North Africa at University of Cambridge. This article was originally
published in Al Jazeera.
The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author.
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