VIEW FROM ABROAD
Don’t be fooled by the biggest black-market gain in a year for Nigeria’s naira.
The rally, sparked by increased sales of
foreign exchange forwards and looser capital controls, is contingent on
the central bank continuing to sell down its reserves. And until it
devalues or makes a clear switch to a free-floating currency, Africa’s
most-populous country will struggle to lure back foreign investors,
according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Renaissance Capital.
Forwards suggest more declines to come,
investors are shunning naira assets, and a web of alternative exchange
rates only adds to the confusion over the currency’s real value.
After sales of $600 million of one- and
two-month forwards last week, the naira’s black market rate rose 13 per
cent to 460 per dollar from an all-time low of 520. It appreciated
another 2.2 per cent to 450 on Monday after the central bank sold $100
million of 60-day forwards. That narrowed the gap with the official
rate, which the central bank has kept at around 315 since August, to the
smallest since September.
The number of exchange rates in the
country “further complicates” an already convoluted system, according to
John Ashbourne of London-based Capital Economics.
Nigeria, which has always managed its
currency tightly, charges people different prices for foreign exchange
depending on their needs. Last week, Nigerians going on business trips
abroad or paying overseas medical and school bills were lured away from
the black market with a rate 20 per cent above the official interbank
level, equating to about 370 per dollar.
Even after the rebound, the currency
remains 32 per cent weaker on the black market than on the official one.
Naira forward contracts maturing in three months trade at 357 per
dollar, suggesting the currency will drop 12 per cent in the period.
Naira six-month contracts are quoted at 385.
Nigeria’s Eurobond yields have dropped
to the lowest since May 2015, showing that investors are keen to get
more exposure to the nation amid higher oil prices and waning pipeline
attacks by militants in the Niger River delta. It’s a different story
for naira-denominated assets. Local-currency bonds average 16.4 percent,
the second highest after Egypt among 31 major emerging markets tracked
by Bloomberg.
It’s the same story with equities.
Nigerian stocks, languishing near a 10-month low, are the cheapest in
Africa, with a price-to-earnings ratio based on estimates for the next
12 months of 7.6, barely half the level of South Africa. Yet the market
capitaliSation of the dollar-based Global X MSCI Nigeria Exchange Traded
Fund, listed in New York, has more than doubled in the last year to $35
million. That suggests investors are keen on Nigerian stocks, just not
in naira.
• Culled from Bloomberg
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