The organisation of the Petroleum Oil Exporting Countries (OPEC),
said oil will continue to contribute the largest share in the energy mix
with demand hitting 110.6 million barrel daily (mbd) by 2040. OPEC
World Oil Outlook (WOO) released yesterday, also noted that total
primary energy demand would expand by about 25 percent in the next 20
years.
“All forms of energies will be required in the future to help to meet
expanding demand in a sustainable way, balancing the needs of people in
relation to their social welfare, the economy and the environment,” OPEC
said.
Meanwhile, prices of oil edged higher as OPEC and allies led by Russia,
agreed to one of the deepest output cuts this decade to prevent
oversupply in a deal that will apply for an unexpectedly short period of
the first three months of 2020. Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak
said a panel of energy ministers including Saudi Arabia and Russia had
recommended OPEC+ deepen the cuts by 500,000 bpd. A cut of 1.7 million
bpd would amount to 1.7% of global supply.In the afternoon of Thursday,
Bonny Light hovered around $65 per barrel, Brent crude futures were up
21 cents, standing at $63.21 a barrel.
The report also highlighted that natural gas will witness the largest
demand growth in absolute terms, and renewables will see the largest
growth in percentage terms.The demand for oil according to the group
will be mainly driving by developing countries, particularly outside the
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
The oil cartel noted that non-OECD countries would demand growth by 21.4
million b/d by 2040 (compared to 2018), whereas the OECD region is
expected to contract by 9.6 mb/d.“Long-term demand growth comes mainly
from the petrochemicals, which would require 4.1 million b/d, road
transportation; 2.9 million b/d and aviation, which would need 2.4
million b/d sectors.
The group also believes that total vehicle fleet, especially passenger
and commercial vehicles would hit 2.4 billion by 2040, witnessing an
estimated grow by more than 1 billion. Similarly, OPEC said the
long-term share of electric vehicles in the total fleet would increase
by 13 percent in 2040, predicating the forecast on falling battery costs
and policy.
“Non-OPEC liquids supply is projected to grow by 9.9 million b/d between
2018 and 2024; the majority coming from U.S. tight oil, but from the
mid-2020s non-OPEC sees a steady decline. Demand for OPEC liquids is
projected to increase to around 44.4 million b/d in 2040, up from 36.6
mb/d in 2018.
“Crude distillation capacity additions of around 8 million b/d are
expected between 2019 and 2024, with over 70 percent in the Asia-Pacific
and the Middle East. This is close to 50 percent of the total capacity
additions required in the long-term to 2040. “Global crude oil and
condensate trade is estimated to remain relatively static at around 38
million b/d between 2018 and 2025, before increasing to around 42
million b/d by 2040,” the report noted.
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