More than 10,000 Americans have now died from the coronavirus
and the number of infections increased to over 347,000 – as new data
predict the outbreak in the US will peak in 10 days with over 3,000
deaths in 24 hours.
The death toll in the United States increased by 1,147 overnight to bring the total number of fatalities to 10,358.
The number of confirmed cases across the country increased by 25,841, bringing the infection total to 347,516.
New York remains the epicentre of the US outbreak with nearly 500 new
fatalities and more than 8,900 new cases in the state as of Monday.
Health officials, however, have warned that the death toll from
coronavirus is actually much higher given there is no streamlined way of
reporting fatalities across the country in relation to the pandemic.
It comes as forecasters at the University of Washington’s School of
Medicine released updated coronavirus estimates on Sunday that showed
the peak of the pandemic could be over quicker than initially thought
and level out as early as June.
The estimated peak day of the outbreak is expected to occur in 10
days on April 16 with a projected 3,130 deaths that day, the data shows.
Peak resource use for hospitals is predicted to occur on April 15 –
the day before the peak death toll – where an estimated 25,000
ventilators, 140,000 beds and 29,000 ICU beds will be needed.
Data shows there will be a shortage of 36,000 hospital beds and 16,000 ICU beds by that day.
Dr Christopher Murray, who is the director of the university’s
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, said New York could reach
its peak in the next few days.
He said New Jersey, which has experienced a larger number of cases than previously thought, will peak later than New York.
Dr Murray said the data was predicting that Florida, Virginia,
Louisiana and West Virginia will all peak earlier than initially
thought.
‘As we noted previously, the trajectory of the pandemic will change –
and dramatically for the worse – if people ease up on social distancing
or relax with other precautions,’ he said.
‘Our projections are strengthened by the new downturns in more regions . This is evidence that social distancing is crucial.’
The forecasts are based on social distancing remaining in place until the end of May.
‘Our estimates assume state-wide social distancing measures are
continuing in states where they have already been enacted, and for those
states without such measures in place, it is assumed they will be will
be in place within seven days,’ Dr Murray said.
‘If social distancing measures are relaxed or not implemented, the US
will see greater death tolls, the death peak will be later, the burden
on hospitals will be much greater and the economic costs will continue
to grow.’
New data on health service use from multiple states, including New
York, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Florida and California, since the pandemic
started escalating has also led to decreases in the estimated need to
deal with the outbreak.
The need for ICU beds and ventilators are less than previously
estimated and will dramatically decrease by June 1, according to the
data.
Dr Murray said the data showed the length of stay for COVID-19
patients in ICU had increased but the length of stay had gone down for
patients not requiring intensive care.
The lower numbers of required hospital beds could reflect how
moderately ill patients in cities like New York are not being admitted
because of the demand on the over-stretched system.
In addition to New York, Louisiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Nevada,
Illinois, California, Florida, Washington and Connecticut are other
current hot spots in the country due to rising death tolls.
Pennsylvania, Colorado and Washington DC are now become emerging coronavirus hot spots due to the increasing death tolls.
In Pennsylvania, there were 151 deaths as of Sunday – up from the 42
deaths the state recorded in the week prior. Colorado recorded 140
deaths by Sunday, which was up from the 45 from the previous week.
Washington DC had nine deaths last Sunday but in a week it rose to 22.
Dr Deborah Birx, the White House COVID-19 task force coordinator,
said Pennsylvania, Colorado and Washington DC were being closely watched
as the pandemic rapidly spreads across the country.
‘We’re watching them because they are starting to go on that upside of the curve,’ she said.
‘We’re hoping and believing that if people mitigate strongly, the
work that they did over the last two weeks will blunt that curve and
they won’t have the same upward slope and peak that New York, New
Jersey, Connecticut and part of Rhode Island are having.’
US Surgeon General Jerome Adams warned on Fox News on Sunday that the
country would be entering its hardest week yet amid the pandemic.
‘This is going to be the hardest and the saddest week of most
Americans’ lives, quite frankly. This is going to be our Pearl Harbor
moment, our 9/11 moment, only it’s not going to be localized,’ ‘It’s
going to be happening all over the country. And I want America to
understand that.’
It comes as most states have ordered residents to stay home except
for essential trips to slow the spread of the virus in the US.
But eight states, all of them with Republican governors, have yet to
order residents to stay home: Arkansas, Iowa, Nebraska, North Dakota,
South Carolina, South Dakota, Utah and Wyoming.
Georgia, which has recorded 6,600 cases and more than 200 deaths,
ordered residents to stay home but then allowed some beaches to reopen.
Republican Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson defended his refusal to
order statewide restrictions, saying the situation was being watched
closely and that his more ‘targeted approach’ was still slowing the
spread of the virus.
Adams, the surgeon general, said governors who had not issued
month-long stay-at-home orders should at least consider one for the
upcoming week.
White House medical experts have forecast that between 100,000 to
240,000 Americans could be killed in the pandemic, even if sweeping
orders to stay home are followed.
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