The Coronavirus pandemic is likely going to last till 2022 until 60%
to 70% of the population has been infected, a team of longstanding
pandemic experts predicted in a new report.
The experts said because of its ability to spread from people who
don’t appear to be ill, the virus may be harder to control than
influenza.
They recommended that the US, who have the highest cases of the
disease and deaths should prepare for a worst-case scenario that
includes a second big wave of Coronavirus infections in the fall and
winter.
Even in a best-case scenario, people will continue to die from the virus, they predicted.
"This thing's not going to stop until it infects 60 to 70 percent of
people," Mike Osterholm, who directs the Center for Infectious Disease
Research and Policy (CIDRAP) at the University of Minnesota, told CNN.
"The idea that this is going to be done soon defies microbiology.
According to CNN, Mr. Osterholm wrote the report along with Harvard
School of Public Health epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch, who is also a top
expert on pandemics; Dr. Kristine Moore, a former Centers for Disease
Control and Prevention epidemiologist who is now medical director for
CIDRAP; and historian John Barry, who wrote the 2004 book "The Great
Influenza" about the 1918 flu pandemic.
Because Covid-19 is new, no one has any immunity, they said. "The
length of the pandemic will likely be 18 to 24 months, as herd immunity
gradually develops in the human population," they wrote.
"I have said for a long time that when you are trying to understand
how infectious disease is going to unfold, you should rely on history as
well as models," Lipsitch told CNN. For instance, pandemic infections
don't tend to die down in the summer, like seasonal flu does., he said.
Covid-19 is most comparable to a pandemic strain of influenza, they said.
"Because of a longer incubation period, more asymptomatic spread, and
a higher R0, COVID-19 appears to spread more easily than flu," they
wrote in the report. R0 is the average number of other people infected
by each patient.
"A higher R0 means more people will need to get infected and become
immune before the pandemic can end," they add. "Based on the most recent
flu pandemics, this outbreak will likely last 18 to 24 months."
They said government officials should stop telling people the
pandemic could be ending and instead prepare citizens for a long haul.
Three scenarios are possible, they said:
Scenario 1: The first wave of Covid-19 in spring 2020 is followed by a
series of repetitive smaller waves that occur through the summer and
then consistently over a one- to two-year period, gradually diminishing
sometime in 2021
Scenario 2: The first wave of Covid-19 is followed by a larger wave
in the fall or winter and one or more smaller waves in 2021. "This
pattern will require the reinstitution of mitigation measures in the
fall in an attempt to drive down spread of infection and prevent
healthcare systems from being overwhelmed," they wrote. "This pattern is
similar to what was seen with the 1918-19 pandemic."
Scenario 3: A "slow burn" of ongoing transmission. "This third
scenario likely would not require the reinstitution of mitigation
measures, although cases and deaths will continue to occur."
States and territories should plan for scenario 2, the worst-case scenario, they recommended.
"Government officials should develop concrete plans, including
triggers for reinstituting mitigation measures, for dealing with disease
peaks when they occur," they advised.
Lipsitch and Osterholm both said they are surprised by the decisions
many states are making to lift restrictions aimed at controlling the
spread of the virus.
"I think it's an experiment. It's an experiment that likely will cost
lives, especially in places that do it without careful controls to try
to figure out when to try to slow things down again," Lipsitch said.
A vaccine could help, the report said, but not quickly. "The course
of the pandemic also could be influenced by a vaccine; however, a
vaccine will likely not be available until at least sometime in 2021,"
they wrote.
"And we don't know what kinds of challenges could arise during vaccine development that could delay the timeline."
Globally, there are 3,322,661 cases of Coronavirus with 234,408
deaths and 1,050,408 recoveries at as 11:23 am Friday, May 1, 2020.
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