CDD RELEASES BUHARIMETER MID-TERM REPORT

The Centre for Democracy and Development (CDD) has released its two years assessment report of President Muhammadu Buhari’s administration today, Sunday, 23 July 2017.
The report titled:
Buharimeter Mid-Term Report provides independent and systematic assessment of the performance of the incumbent administration against its 222 campaign promises.
The two years’ assessment report reveals that five of the campaign promises have not and cannot be achieved by the incumbent administration and these constitutes “broken promises”! The promises include; the commitment to end medical tourism, which has become a routine feat of President Muhammad Buhari, who is presently being treated in London for an undisclosed ailment, the creation of three million jobs annually; provision of steady power supply to Nigerians between 12 and 18 months of the administration in power, the building of one million new houses a year over the next decades; and immediate increase of national budget to health sector from 5.5% to 10%.
The report reveals that in its first two years, the Buhari administration achieved seven of its campaign promises. These promises include the public declaration of assets and liabilities though the details is yet to be publicly released; presentation of National Anti-Corruption Strategy; establishment of a good working relationship with state governments in the conflict ridden North East, neighbouring countries and international community in the fight against Boko Haram; introduction of time-limited partial amnesty to rank and file of Boko Haram members; review of health policy; introduction of social insurance scheme; and review of structure of Joint Venture Companies and ensuring transparent tendering process, not managed by Federal Ministers.

A comparative analysis of the performance of PMB in his first two years (Years 1 and 2) shows significant progress in terms of promises rated as ‘achieved’ and ‘ongoing’. In the first year Buharimeter report released in July 2016, it was reported that overall performance was low, having achieved only one (1) out of two hundred and twenty-two (222) campaign promises, while progress was made towards fulfilling forty-five (45) of the promises. However, performance has fairly improved within the year under review. The total number of achieved and ongoing election pledges has increased from 1 to 7, and 45 to 114 respectively in year one and year two. The report also reveals that promises rated as ‘Not rated’ decreased from 179 to 96.
The report reveals that the government emphasis in the last two years have been on security. Corruption, agriculture, oil and gas, social safety net and industrialization with no corresponding intervention in the education, health, sports and culture, women and youth empowerment sectors and as such, these sectors have performed poorly.
It is particularly worrying that despite milestone recorded in the anti-graft war, there are still genuine concerns over how the war is being prosecuted. In particular, the anti-graft war is rife with lack of viable instruments to enforce compliance; continues to be prosecuted in an uncoordinated and disjointed manner by several institutions including the Department of State Security, Police, EFCC, ICPC etc. There is need for better coordination and understanding of roles and responsibilities by these institutions. The unlawful detention of suspects and refusal to obey court rulings are also challenges. However, the approval rating of the anti-corruption war in the perception survey conducted by the Buharimeter stands at 52%; although greater proportion of Nigerians who expressed satisfaction are residents in North West (80%), North East (61%) and North Central (55%).
The newly introduced whistle blowing policy which has helped in the recovery of looted funds is also popularly received by Nigerians with 47percent of sampled population in Buharimeter survey applauding it. However, it is crucial that a substantive legal framework be immediately provided to strengthen citizens’ engagement in the process.

In terms of fighting insecurity, the government appears to have begun to shift from the state and enemy-centric approach to an approach which uses dialogue and negotiation. While this may achieve laudable results in the case of the Niger Delta, caution should be exercised in employing such a strategy to deal with Boko Haram. It is recommended that the government adopts an approach which balances victims and perpetrators rights. The report calls on the government to prioritise dealing with ongoing agitations for a state of Biafra; the report opined that beyond dialogue and intervention in redressing the economic and other development issues bedeviling the region, the government should go further by acknowledging the local grievances from the Biafra civil war and chart a path towards memorialisation and healing.
According to the report, there has been several incidents of violations of human rights, due process and lack of respect for the rule of law since the Buhari administration came into office. The government refusal to obey several court orders ordering the release of retired colonel Sambo Dasuki, Sheik Ibraheem El-Zakzaky and his wife Zeenat is a serious blight on the administration’ commitment to rule of law. The laxity of the administration in responding to several violent conflicts erupting in several parts of the country is a source of concern for citizens. For instance, the pastoralists/farmer’s conflicts plaguing all the 6 geo-political zones of the country have recorded lots of casualties. In Benue State, alone, 37 incidents of pastoralists/farmer’s conflicts were reported with an estimate of 612 deaths recorded between 4 August 2015 and 25 April 2017.
There is no doubt that restoring Nigeria’s economy is a priority for the administration. However, its inability to translate several monetary and fiscal policies to economic growth and development in the last two years raises some concerns. Even, the interest rate regime in the monetary market has not made any meaningful impact on the all-time inflation rate. As reveals in the Buharimeter survey report, in spite of the government’s efforts to tackle the economic recession, most Nigerians do not believe these approaches are effective. Only 17% and 1% of Nigerians consider government’s approach to tackling the economic recession very effective and extremely effective, respectively. 46% and 36% of surveyed Nigerians consider the government’s approach somewhat effective.

The recession continues to impact negatively on the country’s employment and poverty rate as well as food inflation. The Buharimeter survey further reveals, 9 in 10 Nigerians opined that the recession has resulted in ‘High cost of foodstuff’ (90%) followed by high cost of transportation (61%), high cost of house rent and utilities (56%) and high cost of school fees (55%), amongst others, which have altogether affected their household negatively. The government’s palliative measure to address poverty and unemployment rate is challenged by politicized selection process (especially at state level), inconsistency in registered name and bank details, supply of wrong bank details, improper registration, lack of effective coordination arising from inexperienced focal persons in states, failure of beneficiaries to present themselves for physical verification, amongst others. While it is crucial for government to address all these, it is also important that a commensurate effort should be made to revive education, health and other key sectors.
Despite the problems articulated above, Buharimeter perception survey reveals that 57% of surveyed Nigerians approve the job performance of President Buhari, while 40 percent do NOT approve of his job performance. Clearly, the 57% job approval has regional dimension. While respondents from the North-West (85%) and North-East (66%) constitute the majority of those who approve of his performance, respondents from the South-East (72%) and South-South (60%) make up those who do NOT approve his performance.

This report provides a systematic assessment of the performance of PMB and APC using 222 campaign promises made during the 2015 general elections as the benchmark. According to the findings of our assessment, the performance of the incumbent administration improved during their second year in government. This may be partly because the government began to implement promises, having had time to prepare for outlined programmes and determine which resources are required. Furthermore, ministers who were not appointed until November 2015 began work in Year Two. However, the government’s approach needs to be holistic and not limited to fighting corruption, tackling insecurity and pursuing a diversification agenda. While these are important for the socio-economic and political development of the country, commensurate effort should be made to revive education, health and other key sectors.
Buharimeter report draws its strength from a well-defined methodological framework. The 222 election pledges are carefully sourced from 1) APC Manifesto: An Honest Contract with Nigeria; 2) My Covenant with Nigeria released by the Campaign Team of the APC Presidential Candidate, Muhammadu Buhari; and 3) Unrefuted media reports including national newspaper reports and electronic media reports (television and radio) on election promises made by the President during campaign tours across the country. More so, data for analysis are sourced through review of relevant policy documents and reports, fact checking, on spot visits, interviews of government officials and experts, survey and media tracking. We employ a ranking system for rating performance per tracked promise.
The full Mid-Term report can be downloaded via www.buharimeter.org.